GLP 02

Colour on the wall and what the tin says its should be

The second of my Gardening Leave Projects has been painting the bathroom. Apparently, if I do a good job I may get to paint someone else's bathroom - fingers crossed.

There isn't much to paint actually. The room itself is quite small and when the tiled area, the window and the door are taken into account there is just one wall and some fiddly bits.

'We' settled on "Waterfall". According to the brochure this would be an off white with a blue-grey cast. This should pick out the marble effect in the tiles and brighten the room without it looking too sterile (which isn't a term normally associated with my house).

As the first coat went on I wasn't that impressed. It seemed very pale but then again it was going over a moss green, and covering dark colours with lighter ones can often be difficult. It certainly provided contrast. I decided to reserve judgement and apply a second coat.

By the time the second coat was going on I was definitely not impressed with the colour. It was much bluer than the tin suggested. It also looked familiar but not being that into the color of walls I didn't take too much notice.

Now that its done I'm not impressed at all. It is too blue. And since I've mentioned that I'm not that keen on the colour I have noticed that its the same colour as Ciaran's bedroom. After I said that Fiona pointed out that its also the same colour as the kitchen - I had to go check - I had no idea the kitchen was blue.

Now that it's had a day to dry and I have seen it in artificial light, in daylight, and in today's dreary light I am more convinced that it needs to come off.

Back to Homebase and start again next week. I don't like tester pots as unless you roll them on the always leave a patch where they were, and I suppose I have the time...

GLP 01

First on my list of Gardening Leave Projects: Paint the back fence.
Actually this hasn't been on the list that long. The new fence only went in last August, so that's not too bad for me.

Fence as it was this morning:

After application of a bit of my gardening leave:

Tick Done.

A productive day. I don't care who you ask.

Busy Doing Nothing

Fiona and I were out at Culzean Castle last weekend and happened across the Forces Exhibition. This is a display of historic military equipment and operations.
There was one group that caught our eye, but not for the obvious reasons.

We came across a display from Gardening Leave. This charity provides horticultural therapy to veterans.

The reason we were attracted to the display was their name of 'Gardening Leave'.
Originally this term was a UK Civil Service term for someone sent home from work on full pay. The person is a regular employee, with all the benefits and restrictions of that position, but just not required to attend work or perform any role (or a only much reduced role). Nowadays, it is the term normally applied to someone who has resigned their position, but has to complete their notice period.

Two weeks ago, I resigned from my job of almost 21 years and have been gardening ever since. Pity I chipped the back garden back in 2011.

So for the next 10 weeks I get to have a nice holiday while only occasionally attending the office to advise the 5 people who have been identified as taking over my role on all the things they don't even know they don't know.

Naturally its not a holiday. I have to be available to come into the office, so I can't be away unless I actually take holiday. But other than that I have been told to relax, take it easy and enjoy.

However, Fiona has identified a list of projects that need to be done and has suggested that others may also have their own lists.

I've already been to Homebase for paint...

Summer Time review

I've already shown that I have struggled with my "Get Lean" campaign through the summer.

A week in Crete with all that food and beer and the disruption to my routine. I did get back on track by the end of the month, and can say that at least after the summer I am, at worst, the same as going into it.

Activity wise I'm doing well. The summer didn't really stop me getting out and about: July and August's stats look pretty good considering

I have started using my heart rate monitor while I'm on my bike. This has had the effect of dropping my calorie count during my cycles as it can generate a more accurate estimate of energy used. So its a tradeoff - lower reported calories used versus more graphs for me to look at.
I also have a cadence monitor n the bike giving even more data although not a power monitor despite attempting to get that working. It seems that a Garmin GSC is a speed and cadence so it doesn't report the power no matter how you adjust the sensors. These have only been on the bike since the 20th or so of August but already I can see that my Max heart rate when I'm out with Fiona is about the same as my average heart rate when I'm doing my lunch time cycles.

Of course, my plans to continue on my campaign have taken a beating...

Up Up and Away

Spent the evening in Strathaven at their annual Balloon Festival.

This year the balloons actually flew. Last year it was windy enough that nothing was even there when we showed up.

I've never been close to a hot air balloon before. Its very impressive. I was amazed at how quickly they could go form rolled into the back of a car to inflated and airborne. We we standing close enough to feel the heat coming off the propane burners as the air was warmed for them.

One guy didn't even bother with a basket - he just strapped himself in and was away.

Another surprise was the parachutist. Nothing was said beforehand but suddenly everyone seemed to notice a guy in a parachute had jumped from one of the balloons.

I never got a good count of how many there were. Looking back at the pictures though there must have been a good 12 to 14 of them.

Holiday Ends Now

• Monday Night badminton - resumed last night
• Ciaran at school - resumed yesterday
• Term time school work schedule - resumed yesterday
• lunch time cycle when working from home - resumed today
• Cubs back on - resumes tonight
• Term time Gym schedule - resumes Wednesday (if the hot water is working by then)
• Hitting my target weight - I am trying...

Overall I am down on where I started and still heading in the correct direction. I can also convince myself that I am now laying down muscle!

I think the break in my routine for the holidays - different working and exercise regime, different eating, has played havoc with my diet.

I am now back to where I was at the start of the holidays and trending downwards again, so that at least is good.

I have also noticed something odd - after updating my Garmin, today's calorie count for my cycle was down on previous cycles. This was despite being reasonably close to my best pace. I expect a bit of variation but 30% drop? I don't know if this is an update issue or the fact that I was using my heart rate monitor which is paired with the Garmin. I'll have to keep and eye on it.

Edinburgh Fun Day

Spent the day in Edinburgh doing touristy things.

Ciaran has developed an interest in collecting Hard Rock Cafe badges. This was his specific request for the day. Since we were going all that way Fiona and I decided that we had to do a bit more than travel eat and return.

So, the plan was to get the train over to Edinburgh, go see Gladstone's land, then lunch at the Hard Rock, then see the Georgian House.

I do love Edinburgh as a city. The architecture is amazing.
The old town is a labyrinth of medieval buildings perched on the volcanic plug of Castle Rock. With space at a premium, they built up - up close and up high. some of these buildings were 12 stories and more. The alley way between was called 'a close'. I just love the notion of these buildings where you drive up to one side, enter the front door, walk through to the back of the room and realise you are 4 stories over the next street.

Before we started with Gladstone's Land we had a cup of tea in an old courtyard. This was the site of a building which had been demolished but never rebuilt. Since its adjacent to the wealthier Gladstone's that may have been an influence. The small building facings us was the Writer's Museum while the other looked like private accommodation. There is a close between to two leading down towards the next road. The building behind is higher than these 2, and descends further down.

Gladsone's Land is a tenement building which the National Trust has restored to resemble what it would have looked like when it was the primary residence of a wealthy merchant. Edinburgh is odd in where the rich and poor lived. These buildings had multiple stories. The rich lived on the lower stories, though not at ground level, while the poorest stated at ground level in the filth or from the attic spaces downwards.

We headed up to the Castle for the 1 O'Clock gun. There wasn't much to see as the stands for the Tattoo are in. We then took a walk down through the Grassmarket and back across the Bridges and up to George Street to the Hard Rock Cafe. Neither Fiona nor I was that impressed. The food was fine, but expensive, the place loud with intrusive video screens that you couldn't help look at. Ciaran did get his badge though.

While we were walking, we decided to forgoe the Georgian House and take the bus tour instead. This would give us a better chance to see the New Town.

This is the other side to Edinburgh (Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde like). Its laid out in a much more geometric style than the old town with wide streets and open places. In this part the rich have their own streets while the poor and workers are restricted to the narrow side streets as not to offend the wealthy. As the New Town developed, the wealthy decamped from the Old Town to the New Town, leaving the riff raff behind.

2013 Airshow

Spent the day at East Fortune at Scotland's National Airshow.
This is becoming a regular event for me and though there is a bit of repetition (mostly trying to convince someone to come with me) I do enjoy it. The airshow does suffer from no longer having an active runway. This means that there are few static displays and the show is almost entirely in the air. Some displays are brought in, and a helicopter or two can make an appearance but the main difference from an ordinary day at the museum is the display show.

One of the things they could get in this year was Brian Jones. He was one of the 2 man crew who first circumnavigated the globe in a balloon. His talk was absolutely fantastic. I don't pretend to know too much about ballooning. I do know they are subject to the winds, but he explained how by adjusting altitude you could find different currents moving in different directions, providing an element of control. He spoke for over an hour, accompanied by slides from his record breaking trip.

This year the display highlight was the Eurofighter Typhoon. We've seen these over Prestwick once or twice over the years but this was the first time up close. I was amazed at just how quickly it could manoeuvre. Some of the turns it was making seemed tighter than I could manage on my bike.

And the noise. It physically hit you in the chest and then vibrated through your body. Wow.

One of the disappointments was the last minute cancellation of the F86 Sabre and the Spitfire. Again these are planes with quite distinctive sounds.

Language barrier

One of the Greek meals I ate when we were on Crete (not liking olives or fish restricting my diet) was gyros. This consisted of roasted pork served with tomatoes, onion, grilled pita bread, chips and tzatziki. Every time I had it I quite enjoyed it.
On our last day I again ordered it. I had noticed that as an alternative to it being served with pita, it could be assembled by the chef and served as what in the UK is called a kebab. I had seen some of these being sent out as takeaway while we were looking at the menu, but I couldn't see the choice in the menu itself. Fiona wanted a pizza so she ordered a Gyros Pizza. Ciaran just went for the double burgers.

The food as ever was very good. This was the same place we had the ribs on the first night. Their greeter was a big hit with the small kids - their laughter was infectious.

So why is Fiona looking so disappointed? It appears that the menu item I couldn't find is a Gyros Pita, which interestingly sounds almost exactly like Gyros Pizza.
Fiona wasn't impressed at her sit down takeaway. But she did eat it all and had to admit it tasted great, but wasn't a pizza.

Spinalonga

Another full day but not quite as early a start.
Picked up by bus at 0910 for a drive to Agios Nikolaos where we boarded a boat for a cruise to the old Venetian fortress on Spinalonga.

Once on board the schedule altered. Instead of heading straight to the island we went to a secluded cove and swam and had a bbq lunch.

After lunch we headed to the island.

The island is basically just a small rock - no water or food. The fortress side dominating the harbour and mainland only 500 metres away.

The Venetian history was played down a bit during the tour. They were then ones that built on it and from what I read before we came, actually created the island by digging out the trench separating it from the rest of the peninsula.

Its current claim to fame is the site of one of Europe's last leper colonies. This was described in some book called The Island ( Fiona has read it - Google it if you're interested - not my cup of tea)

Effectively this transformed the original fortress into a prison for the lepers. They took over what Venetian dwellings there were, restored then to habitable state and lived their lives. They probably did better out of the deal - getting away from the persecution they were receiving when in public and also receiving welfare payments.

Once back in Agios Nikolaos we had ice cream on the shore.

Back into the hotel pool for the last few hours of sun before dinner.

and then they rested...

Really struggled today. Both Fiona and I were aching after yesterday's walk. 

Our calfs and thighs had seized up and it was sore to walk. Steps are a nightmare and even up and down kerbs is almost more than we can bear.

As we move we loosen up a bit but once we sit down we both seize up again.

Ciaran on the other hand was fine of course. What was his secret? "You are both old!" He didn't even have the decency to sweat yesterday. Doing the walk in jeans and slicked back hair...

Had to console ourselves with a day on the beach. My first swim in the Med! First time in the ocean for years. In Troon it's normally too cold to venture into the ocean.

Enjoyed it more than I had expected. The beach is quite nice here - mostly sand with some pebbles at either end.

At one point Fiona was getting out to let Ciaran come in and was wondering how she would be able to find me again she turned around from the beach to look. She said I was a single bright white spot in the blue.

Postcards bought and written and another fantastic meal with raki and ouzo.

Ciaran and I shared a meat platter but couldn't come near to finishing it.

Samaria Gorge

Long day today.

This trip was definitely mis-represented by the rep. The brochure said that you could walk the 16 km or get a boat to the Iron Gates. To both Fiona and I this 'suggested' that it was a 8km in and 8km out walk and that you could walk one way and sail back. With this perception we booked the tour.
Only after paying we we told it was a 0520 pickup in front of the hotel, but I was really keen to see the gorge. So...

Alarm went off at 0400 since we had to catch the bus for our grand day out by 0520. Like 3 reanimated corpses we make it in time. For the next 2 hours we went about picking up more travellers until by 0800 we were full and finally on the way.

After a few stops the bus finally arrived at the head if the walk at 1030 and an altitude of 1250m but by this time we were having second thoughts. We had been provided with more accurate info. The gorge was only 13 km but the distance from where we get dropped at 1250m to where the ferry collects us is 16 km. There is no either/or option - its an all or nothing job. While there is drinking water in the gorge there is no food. The guide had pointed out a few other things to remember:

• it will be hot - up to mid 30's in the river bed
• careful over the surface- its all rock
• have enough water at all times,
• beware falling rocks.
• And make it in time because the boat will not wait, and she'll be on the boat.

Since there wasn't much would could do at this point we persevered and started off.

What beautiful scenery. The bleak mountains the dry vegetation and the deep blue sky.

The first 4km were strong descent on rough terrain. But with regular water points we were fine. It was hard on the knees though. I guess walking in Scotland the ground is softer. All the absorbed water will give the ground a bit of spring.

There were odd little piles of rocks. Previous walkers had arranged little piles of stones by the side of the path, on the bigger rocks and fallen trees. We never found out what they were for or what they represented.

But we were cautioned about missing the boat and had a timetable to keep to.

We pressed on into the hottest bit. The dry river bed with the sun beating down on the white rocks. With the gorge walls spread on both sides.

Due to the danger from falling rock we were told not to delay in this section. I admit I felt like an Israelite being led out of Egypt as I walked across the dry river bed.

At its narrowest point the gorge, the Iron Gates, is only 3m wide. This just shows how little water there is even when wet enough to cut this 1000m deep gorge. What water there is is right up to the edge so as we pass this bottle neck we actually do so on a platform over the water.

Finally make it into the village with time to spare.
I had meant to bring my Garmin with me but was advised at the last minute not to, so I had to use the phone to track our progress. It took us just over 6 hours to make the full 16 km from bus to boat and once we got past the initial descent our pace actually increased.

Having done it I was a little disappointed by our pace. The need to make it in time meant that we probably didn't get to enjoy the scenery as much as we should have.

After having some dinner it was a scramble onto the ferry to sail to the bus.
Why a ferry? There are no roads into the village of Agia Roumeli. Its only accessible by foot or sea.

Finally made it back to the apartment by 2200. My knees and thighs are aching and I have no ibuprofen with me.

Knossos Tour

Early start after the bbq last night. On the bus by 0820. Considering we had breakfast yesterday after 1400 it s a bit of a shock.

Magic mystery bus tour as we picked up the other passengers then the guide and arrived at Knossos. Once you get out of the air conditioned bus you realise just how hot it is. Oddly I seem to be coping quite well. A combination of hat, sunglasses, factor 50, drinking water, and sweating profusely which then dries almost immediately is keeping me reasonably active. Our guide is very good though. She keeps hopping us from shade to shade for her info spiels.

The history of the place is incredible. Apart from the actual palace which we saw the ruins of, this was the site of the Minotaur's Labyrinth , a corruption of the court games played against bulls and the fact that the palace was enormous.

The place was mobbed though.

After an ice cream in the 30 degree heat it was back onto the bus and a trip through lovely but somewhat desiccated landscape to an orthodox monastery.

A bit different to the last monastery I visited, Crossraguel in Ayrshire. First off this one still has monks. They get rooms but unlike the traditional Christian cell, they get their own house so the monastery looks like a small village. They also don't do the communal meals. Also there are no big walls to keep in/out.

Fiona is a bit taken with the patchwork nature of the fields and is being inspired for her next quilting project.

Then back on the bus into a tiny village for lunch. This village only has 30 people who live there. They seem to all be working for the local olive and wine production. This produces olive oil, wine and raki. Lunch of souvlaki and salad. Then some raki to sample. Today it had pomegranate in one type and honey in another.

Final stop on the bus tour was to Niko's Pottery workshop for a demo.

Back to the apartment by about 1800 a good 10 hours trip.

Went for Greek food at Pelagas which Fiona found recommended from tripadvisor. Brilliant meal. Good food great value lovely staff.

Since we have the gorge walk in the morning it's back to the apartment for a 0400 alarm call. Just the wine with dinner and after dinner ouzo to help me sleep.

Murray Sunday

Easy day today. Actually had a late start with a lie in. That's what holidays are for.

Fiona seems to be suffering from caffeine withdrawal so we headed out for breakfast at 1400 but it doesn't help her. The combination of heat, no caffeine and odd sleep patterns has caused a migraine so she cannot manage her salad. The manager was not impressed until we explained she was feeling ill from the heat. It happens sometimes he agreed. Our white skin sells our lack of experience with sunlight.

Off then to find a bar showing the race and the tennis. We find one and settle in. There is a conflict though. Vettel is winning the race on the big screen and on the smaller side screen and everyone is watching but the manager is flicking over to see if the tennis has started. Once the warm-ups are over he turns the race over to the tennis. The German at the front of the room is not impressed. He gets moved to the side to watch on the smaller screen, but is annoyed with the poor reception and storms out.

We settle in with cheap draft beer, ice cream and crepes. And Andy finally takes the big one.

Stagger up the road to the apartments where there is a bbq. We underestimated the formality - we are about 5 minutes late and they are all waiting at a single long table.

Good bbq, lots of meat. Free wine.

Then silly games until we call it quits at just after midnight with an early start for the Crete historic tour in the morning.

Holiday Starts Here

Spent day looking about Stalis.

Oddly its 'overcast' and actually rained on us. A short shower granted but actual rain. After speaking to some of the locals it seems this is the first time in 19 years that it has rained in July. I'm not too sure what this bodes for the rest of the week. I'm a bit nervous about the heat as after almost 21 years living in Scotland I had adapted to the cold.

Went up to the pool for a while but it was overcast again but still hot. Was bored out of my mind sitting by the pool as that's just not my thing at all. Basically I have forgotten that Ciaran is now too cool to play in the pool like we used to. Fiona is getting nervous that I'm going to grump all week.

Fantastic meal for dinner. During the day we had wandered and the greeters outside the restaurants all try to convince you to come in. We had found a few that we liked but both Ciaran and I were tempted by the ribs this particular place offered. They were worth it.

After dinner we were offered some of the local local poitin called raki. This is made from grapes after the wine is made. Its was quite strong but went well with slices of melon. This and a few beers had us all shattered.

June Update

Still getting smaller, just not as quickly.

I seem to have drifted away from my original plan, but perhaps if I redouble my efforts and perhaps cut off limbs I may still make it.

As it is, by the end of June I have lost another 2 kg. That brings my total reduction to just under 15 kg, or 43% of my targeted weight reduction in 50% of the time.

I had a really positive experience while preparing for holiday. I was able to get out some of my older clothes that now fit again and get rid of a lot of clothes that are now too large. Very empowering to put on a pair of trousers I bought for my Dad's 75th. They were a bit tight then but I am now able to put them on, button them up and then take them off. That was the test - anything I could take off without opening went into the charity bag. 6 bags were filled.

I am pleased with my overall progress but concerned about how to get rid of the rest, especially with the summer upon us. With luck I will sweat a few kilos out while on Crete next week.

Exercise wise I'm still on the increase.

Good stats considering I missed 2 cycles due to punctures and at least one weekend cycle due to holiday shopping.
My total distance increased again for June but overall duration was down a bit. I also undertook  more workouts although 2 of those workouts don't really count. Only 1 of June's workouts were more than 70 minutes. That's still the killer. I need to get out at least once over the weekend for a long workout. Sitting in and eating is always going to be worse than going out on the bike or for a walk and then eating.

June 2013, Duration in seconds, distance in km

Plans for July? That's a tough one. I am on holiday for the first 2 weeks. That means no gym since that's at work. Also I'm more likely to snack at home than at work. That's not even mentioning a week away in Crete which will involve eating in and eating out. But sweating too so mixed opportunities. I think I will struggle through the summer but must try to maintain some useful level of activity.

3rd time, not so charming

After replacing my rear tyre 2 weeks ago I was all set to go out for my normal lunch time cycle when I discovered I had a puncture in that tyre. "I must have forgotten to re-inflate the tyre" I thought until I remembered that Fiona and I had been joking about the pump. Puncture it was.

No problem. With these new self adhesive patches its child's play to fix a puncture.
I was surprised though since I hadn't actually been out on the bike, and there wasn't a  puncture when I replaced the worn tyre. I ran my finger along inside and couldn't find anything in the tyre itself but there was a rough piece on the rim itself. Probably caused by the tyre lever getting the tyre off. These things happen. I smoothed it off and got the patches out.

Once fixed I was out and did my cycle. Since its also the first night without Cubs over the summer, Fiona came over after dinner and we both went out for a cycle.

Guess what I found out the next time we went to go for a cycle? Another puncture. I don't think Fiona minded that much 'cos she made Eton Mess for us instead.

When I got the tyre off though it got odd. The new leak is just below the new patch.
So:

1. was it a new puncture caused by the rim;
2. a double puncture that I didn't take enough care in fixing;
3. or did I just put the patch in the wrong place?

I suppose the patch could have been in the wrong place but I was out twice that day and the tyre didn't feel soft. I'm not inclined to remove the patch because I suspect that will cause more damage to the tube.
Similarly it could have been a double puncture. It does seem unlikely since I was out twice on the 'repaired' tyre.
That suggests the rim. In order to test (and because I didn't have any patches left) I decided to use my spare tyre and see what happens.

With great trepidation Fiona and I went out last Sunday but the tyre was fine. We got soaked though and had to call it short.

Yesterday's cycle was great, windy but a good time. I bumped into an old friend which despite pausing my Garmin did skew my splits somewhat.

So, that leaves me confused. Was it a double puncture or did I patch a good bit of tyre?

Come along today. All set to go out and flat tyre. At least this time its obvious - a chunk of glass still stuck in the tyre. But no patches so no ride. Bike shop in Troon is closed on Wednesday so it was a trip out to Halfords to get patches.
Tyre is now patched, re inflated and seems to be holding air. I won't bother re assembling the bike until tomorrow though just in case.

Riddle me this...

How can two bicycle tyres, the same make, bought at the same time, fitted to the same bike on the very same day, have such dramatically different wear patterns?

The one on the top is the front type and the other is the rear. It needs replacing as its through to the canvas, while the front still seems almost new.

Its a bicycle, so my weight should be equally distributed between front and rear wheels, unless I'm leaning back so much that I'm pulling a wheelie for most of my cycle.

I haven't been doing unnecessary skids since Michael, Danny, Bobby and I were kids. The necessary ones fortunately have been few and far between, certainly not enough to account for the tyre wear.

I have had the occasional wheel spin. Sadly not as I accelerate away, but because if I get out of the saddle going uphill I lean too heavily on the handlebars. But that makes sense - I'm over the front axle which the takes the weight lightening the load on the rear wheel. Push down on the pedal and the wheel slips.

Luckily, a spare tyre has now been fitted so normal service will not be interrupted.

Mediocre May

My monthly update in my attempts to make myself smaller.

A good start to the month, but a disappointing end to it. I am still down, weight wise, but a weekend away and 'feed a cold' attitude meant that by the end of the month I had slipped a little.
Overall, as of 1 June I am just under 13kg (or just over 2 stone) lighter than I was at the start of January. I still have 22kg to go though...

I am also getting a little hacked off with the Hacker diet. The trend line follows behind too far.As you can see, for most of the month I was doing quite well but the red trend doesn't really reflect that. The end of the month is all me though.

Exercise wise I'm doing well. My lunchtime cycle is faster this month again. Each month my average time for the set 7 miles has dropped. This average is now under 31 minutes while when I started in January it was 35 minutes.

This month, with me being ill, I missed once lunch cycle and one gym session. Also due to work, I missed one gym session, and a scouts meeting meant I missed another gym session (but went out for a bike ride, but not one of my lunchtime route). Despite this, my 14 workouts took 16 hours and travelled over 170 km. That's 5.5 hours and 25 km more than April.

screenshots taken on 11 June so June is looking to be an active month.

My stats for the month look good.  A big jump in May despite missing those workouts. My regular gym workout has been increased to 60 minutes from 45, but  the big difference this month were a long cycle one weekend and a long walk another.

I also seem to be quite sensitive to what exercise I do. My weight seems to drop more regularly if I mix up the lunch cycles with regular gym workouts and weekend walks or cycles. The plot of raw weighings above shows an issue towards the end of the month when I missed my gym sessions. I can't help getting sick, and work will have to take priority, but it does suggest I'll have to mix it up while on holidays and away from the gym.

Damage potential...

Part of the reason I am the size I am is a great fondness for beer, particularly a good pint of Guinness, and crisps, the fried or baked potatoes, not as in a crisp carrot stick, or crisp day to go for a walk.

What chance do I have of hitting my target when this is now available?